The AFL season is heating up, and with six rounds left, the race for the top six is intense. Geelong, once a strong contender, is tumbling down the table, and the game that will decide who makes the top six is shaping up to be a thrilling one. The wildcard spot is up for grabs, and a surprising new side is tipped to earn it.
Fremantle is mathematically locked into the finals, and they're almost mathematically locked into the top six. They're two games clear of Sydney, and the percentage gap looks big, but would disappear if they lost twice. They're near-certainties to be minor premiers and would need to completely collapse to miss a home qualifying final.
Sydney remains another two games clear of third, and as long as they win at least one of their next two games, they should finish second. Hawthorn and Brisbane have easier remaining draws than Adelaide and Melbourne, with the Crows still to play Sydney and Freo away, while the Demons host Geelong and Freo.
Geelong's recent losses are individually not particularly bad, but collectively they are terrible. They're getting a home elimination final at best, almost certainly by beating and then passing Melbourne, and copping a scary wildcard game at worst. Their last three games are against the Bombers, Roos, and Tigers. They're not missing the finals.
The Bulldogs just need to keep getting the job done against lesser sides. With the Tigers and Kangaroos left, that should be the 12 wins they'll require. The comeback over the Kangaroos was vital for Collingwood, given their remaining draw. If they beat the Blues next week, combined with West Coast away in a few weeks' time, that could be just enough for a wildcard.
GWS' season has been ridiculous, with five wins over the top half of the ladder, and three wins over the bottom half. They're on track for the wildcard, with four very winnable games that'd get them to the magic number of 12. If they hadn't lost to St Kilda twice, they'd be in a much better spot.
Carlton dropped down the order a little bit after the loss to Hawthorn, yet still have a reasonable path to 12 wins if they beat the Magpies, plus the Suns, Saints, and Bulldogs. But as you would expect from a team that's trying to play finals after starting 1-8, they don't have much margin for error.
North Melbourne was brave against the Pies, but the wildcard dream is basically over, while Gold Coast feels a lot like Geelong; their losses can kinda be explained individually, but they’re about to finish way, way lower on the ladder than they should. The Suns are still in the hunt, if only just. Adelaide in Adelaide was always gonna be hard, and even eight weeks ago we would’ve had them as underdogs; this wasn’t the game they HAD to win, though it would’ve helped.
The Power could still make it by winning every remaining game, but they weren’t doing that with a healthy Zak Butters, and they certainly won’t do it without him. A sad probably-an-ending to his career in teal though it does ensure they won’t accidentally play their way out of a better draft pick.
